Bharti Airtel has been the pick of analysts in the Indian telecom sector. The telco has continued to show growth signs in both the mobile as well as non-mobile business. BNP Paribas said, “Airtel seems well-positioned to report strong revenue growth and improvement in profitability, led by higher tariffs and market share gains.” For Airtel India, BNP Paribas estimates 4.5% rise QoQ inn mobile revenues in Q1 FY23. The rise in revenues will come from the residual effect of the tariff hike in the December 2021 quarter. The analyst has said that Airtel’s ARPU (average revenue per user) will rise to Rs 185, which is Rs 1 more than what ICICI Securities has estimated. Further, BNP Paribas said, “Airtel’s India non-mobile business, including broadband and enterprise, to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with the telco gaining revenue market share across divisions. We expect Airtel’s consolidated revenue and EBITDA to increase 22% and 28% YoY”.
Reliance Jio Revenue Forecast by BNP Paribas
For Reliance Jio, BNP Paribas said, “We forecast revenue to rise 4% QoQ, led by 5% QoQ increase in ARPU, with a modest QoQ increase in the subscriber base, while data volume growth QoQ should continue to be moderate. We expect YoY EBITDA growth of 35%, 29% and 21% for Airtel (India mobile), Jio and VIL, respectively”. Reliance Jio is expected to post the highest ARPU growth during the quarter. This is because of the delayed effect of tariff hikes on the telco’s subscriber base, as there are many customers who recharge for the long term. ICICI Securities had said that Vi’s ARPU would jump to Rs 126, which will be a 2% jump QoQ. Vodafone Idea hasn’t touched the Rs 150 ARPU mark despite the tariff hikes, which is a worrying sign for the company and its investors. The telco needs to add as many 4G subscribers as possible to change that.
